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Shifting Turnout Intentions, Gender Gap Put Walker in Lead Says Final Marquette Poll

Posted by Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert is the Publisher of the Northeast Wisconsin - Green Bay Progressive.
User is currently offline
on Wednesday, 29 October 2014
in Wisconsin

walkerMILWAUKEE - The shifting winds of who says they are most likely to vote and the different realities of men and women voters appear to have turned back in Scott Walker's favor according to the Final Pre-election Marquette Law School Poll released today. The new poll finds Republican Scott Walker leading Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the Wisconsin governor’s race.

mary-burkeThe previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 9-12, found the race tied among likely voters, with the candidates holding 47 percent each, while 48 percent of registered voters supported Walker to Burke’s 45 percent support.

In Wednesday's poll, 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say that they are certain to vote in the November election.

“Shifting turnout intentions have provided most of the dynamics of the race this fall,” said Marquette Law School Poll director Charles Franklin. “While the results among all registered voters have varied between a tie and a 3-point Walker edge, the likely-voter results have ranged from a 2-point Burke advantage to the current 7-point Walker lead.”

In the current poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote, while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same. Two weeks ago 82 percent of Republicans, and 80 percent of both Democrats and independents, said that they were certain to vote. By comparison, in the final Marquette Law School Poll before the 2012 gubernatorial recall election, 92 percent of Republicans, 77 percent of Democrats and 84 percent of independents said that they were certain to vote.

Among registered voters this time, Walker receives 46 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else.

The poll interviewed 1,409 registered voters, including 1,164 likely voters, by landline and cell phone Oct. 23-26. For the full sample of 1,409 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 1,164 likely voters is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This is the final Marquette Law School Poll before the Nov. 4 election.

Another factor in the final poll result is the return of the large gender gap among likely voters. After narrowing to just 2 percentage points in the previous poll, the gender gap in vote choice has returned.

Among registered voters, Burke leads 50-40 among women and Walker leads 53-39 among men. Among likely voters, Burke’s lead among women is 49-43 while Walker’s lead among men is 58-36. In the six Marquette Law School Polls since July, Burke has averaged a 49-42 lead among women and Walker a 52-40 lead among men for registered voters. Among likely voters, Burke has averaged a 52-42 lead among women and Walker a 55-40 advantage among men.

Another factor in the results may have been the deluge of negative ads launched by the Walker campaign and their allies to muddy the image of Mary Burke.

Burke’s favorability ratings have turned down in the latest poll, with 38 percent of registered voters viewing her favorably while 45 percent have an unfavorable view. In earlier polls in September and October, her favorable-unfavorable ratings were 36-35, 36-37 and 40-43. Among likely voters, her current favorable-unfavorable rating is 39-49, with the ratings in the three earlier polls since the beginning of September being, oldest to newest, 41-39, 40-44 and 44-44. Among registered voters, 17 percent lack an opinion of Burke, down from 69 percent in January. Among likely voters, 12 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know their view of Burke.

Walker’s favorable rating in the latest poll is 48 percent, with 47 percent unfavorable, among registered voters. His previous ratings since the beginning of September are 49-45, 47-47 and 48-48. Among likely voters he is currently seen favorably by 51 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent. His ratings among likely voters in the three most recent polls are, in chronological order, 52-46, 52-46 and 50-48.

Given the wide swings in the last three polls, this race is still up for grabs. Early voting and absentee voting have begun and people who have already voted are much more likely to "say that they are certain to vote". Democratic voters are legendary for showing up at the polls after 6 PM on election day. Many factors could cause the wind to shift back in Burke's favor.

But this poll is not good news for the Burke campaign and the Democrats will have to double their efforts in the final days to get their supporters to the polls.

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Voting? No Photo ID Required, Yet

Posted by Kathleen Vinehout, State Senator 31st District
Kathleen Vinehout, State Senator 31st District
Kathleen Vinehout of Alma is an educator, business woman, and farmer who is now
User is currently offline
on Monday, 27 October 2014
in Wisconsin

voteridSenator Kathleen Vinehout writes about voting and the Voter ID law. She shares background on the decisions leading up to the U.S. Supreme Court action that puts the Wisconsin ID law on hold.


ALMA - “I haven’t voted in three years,” a Galesville fairgoer told me this summer. He leaned up against the pole barn at the Trempealeau County Fair and shoved his fingers in his pockets. “I don’t want to show up and be told I can’t vote.”

Changes in voting rules are confusing. A requirement to have a certain type of photo ID to vote has been an ‘on again, off again’ law leading up to this election.

On November 4, voters will not be required to show a photo ID.

The U.S. Supreme Court put a hold on Wisconsin’s photo ID law. The high court made no comment on the law and may rule on it later. If not, legislators in January may revisit the photo ID law. But for now, the law is on hold, so the Galesville man should vote along with every other eligible voter.

In 2011, Wisconsin passed its restrictive photo ID law. Restrictive because the types of IDs allowed are limited, requirements on absentee voters are strict and the number of people potentially unable to vote is high– estimated at 300,000.

Since 2011, the law ping-ponged back and forth in federal and state courts as one court found it legal while another declared the law unconstitutional. Most recently the U.S. Supreme Court halted enforcement of the law but did not issue an opinion on its final status.

About the same time as the Supreme Court decision, Judge Richard Posner of the US 7th Circuit Court of Appeals wrote the dissenting opinion on that court’s tied vote on taking up an appeal of Wisconsin’s photo ID law before the full court.

At issue – among others – was whether the Wisconsin law was similar to an Indiana law upheld by the courts. If the laws of the two states were similar, presumably Wisconsin’s law could go into effect.

Back in 2011, I argued Wisconsin’s photo ID would be the strictest in the nation. Since then, Texas passed a stricter law. But Wisconsin’s law remains one of the most limiting. The nonpartisan National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL) recently listed Wisconsin as one of 9 strict photo ID laws nationally.

During debate on the Wisconsin law my Senate colleagues and I who opposed the law argued courts would find it unconstitutional because of its restrictive nature and the large of people without acceptable IDs. Proponents of the law argued it was modeled after Indiana already upheld by the nation’s highest court.

In his dissent Judge Posner argued Wisconsin’s law was not comparable to Indiana’s law except that the laws “belong to the same genre”. With 330,000 voters lacking required identification and Wisconsin’s law being more limiting than Indiana, the judge wrote “the effects of the photo ID requirement on voter suppression are likely to be much greater in Wisconsin, especially since as we saw earlier its law is stricter than Indiana’s.”

Many people in Wisconsin are concerned about voter fraud. There are many types of fraud ranging from voting more than once to ballots that are unsecured. However, Wisconsin has a history of clean elections with very little documented voter fraud.

A photo ID law is used to address one type of fraud: voter impersonation. This is when a voter pretends to be someone he or she is not.

In his recent judicial opinion Judge Posner summarized: “There is compelling evidence that voter impersonation fraud is essentially nonexistent in Wisconsin.”

In conclusion, Judge Posner wrote: “There is only one motivation for imposing burdens on voting that are ostensibly designed to discourage voter impersonation fraud, if there is no actual danger of such fraud, and that is to discourage voting by persons likely to vote against the party responsible for imposing the burdens.”

Rules governing voting make a difference in how many people go to the polls. Wisconsin ranks high among voter participation in elections. For example, in 2012, Wisconsin ranked second only to Minnesota with 73% of eligible voters voting; Indiana ranked 40th with 56% of voters going to the polls.

Voting is a precious right in our democracy. Democracy works when large numbers of people are involved on Election Day.

So, go vote!

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Walker's Involvement In Real Estate Scandal Raise Troubling Questions About Rush To Sell State Property

Posted by Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert is the Publisher of the Northeast Wisconsin - Green Bay Progressive.
User is currently offline
on Monday, 27 October 2014
in Wisconsin

walkerMADISON - Senate Democrats are alarmed at new revelations about Governor Scott Walker's role in providing insider information to a personal friend and campaign donor in a Milwaukee County real estate scandal. Democrats said the new allegations of “bid-rigging” and "pay-to-play" politics raise troubling questions about Gov. Walker’s rush to sell state property.

“Giving inside information to close friends and campaign operatives to help them circumvent the public bidding process not only cheats the other businesses bidding on projects but the taxpayers and our open form of government,” said Sen. Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay). “No matter how you look at it, it’s wrong and raises serious questions about whether Scott Walker has taken other similar liberties as Governor.”

dave_hansen“As Republicans rush to sell state property, we need to ensure that similar backroom deals for special interests aren’t cheating our taxpayers,” said Sen. Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse). “Gov. Walker’s administration has already failed to disclose the fair market value of property they are looking to sell as required by state law. The rush to sell state property to the highest bidder without having adequate safeguards in place puts taxpayers at risk and has been troubling since day one.”

Gov. Walker has recently come under fire for several high-profile scandals including a $700,000 campaign contribution from GTAC – an out-of-state mining corporation – which successfully lobbied to change state open-pit mining laws. An investigation also revealed that Gov. Walker’s Economic Development Corporation has funneled millions of taxpayer dollars to businesses and special interests with close personal ties to Gov. Walker.

“Despite Scott Walker’s denials, all of these actions have taken place since he became governor and they give the public every reason to question his ethics and what else he’s been doing that we don’t know about,” added Sen. Hansen. “Wisconsin citizens deserve answers and it’s is time for the Governor to come clean about his actions.”

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Walker and Republicans are Lying About the Budget Crisis

Posted by Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert, Green Bay Progressive
Bob Kiefert is the Publisher of the Northeast Wisconsin - Green Bay Progressive.
User is currently offline
on Wednesday, 22 October 2014
in Wisconsin

scott_walkerNon-partisan Politifact exposes political cover-up.


MADISON - Today’s analysis by the non-partisan Politifact shows that Governor Walker and Republican leaders have been caught lying about the state’s financial condition rather than acknowledge that the policies they have pursued have created a $1.8 billion budget crisis.

We reached a trusted local source, State Senator Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay) for comment.

dave-hansen“Over and over Governor Walker and Republican leaders have tried to convince people that we do not have a budget crisis despite data from the non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau that shows the state is facing a $1.8 billion deficit heading into the next budget cycle” said Hansen. “If they had said it once or twice and acknowledged their mistake it would be one thing. But despite being called out on their fiction they continue to tell the people something they know is not true. They’re lying plain and simple.”

Using a long-established method that has been accepted and used by governors and members of both political parties Politifact concluded that Wisconsin is in fact facing a $1.8 billion structural deficit going into the next budget cycle.

Hansen went on: “Giving away billions in tax breaks to their rich and corporate friends at the expense of our kids’ education, wasting millions in tax dollars on failed and suspect private voucher schools and steering millions in tax dollars to their campaign contributors under the guise of economic development has created not just a budget crisis but also a jobs crisis and income crisis for Wisconsin families. It is shameful behavior and lying about it only makes it worse.”

Under Governor Walker Wisconsin is facing a $1.8 billion deficit, is dead last for job growth in the Midwest since he took office, Wisconsin families have seen their yearly incomes fall by over $2,700 and Wisconsin workers are now earning $5,000 less per year than their counterparts in Minnesota.

Finally, Hansen said: “Instead of cherry-picking statistics, using false numbers and trying to spin the facts, Governor Walker and the Republicans owe the people of this state an apology—both for the economic disaster they’ve created and for not being honest about it.”

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A Constitutional Amendment Will Not Solve Wisconsin's Transportation Problems

Posted by Kathleen Vinehout, State Senator 31st District
Kathleen Vinehout, State Senator 31st District
Kathleen Vinehout of Alma is an educator, business woman, and farmer who is now
User is currently offline
on Monday, 20 October 2014
in Wisconsin

roads_i94Should money collected in gas tax and motor vehicle registration fees be kept in the Transportation Fund and used only for transportation purposes? Senator Kathleen Vinehout shares her concerns about the proposed constitutional amendment appearing on the Nov. 4th ballot.


EAU CLAIRE - “Tell us about the Transportation Constitutional Amendment,” the Eau Claire man asked.

On November 4th people have the opportunity to vote on an amendment to the Wisconsin Constitution. The question, paraphrased, is: should money collected in gas tax and motor vehicle registration fees be kept in the Transportation Fund and used only for transportation purposes?

Proponents argue ‘Yes’. Money set aside for roads should be kept in the Transportation Fund. But nothing in state government is simple. And even if the amendment passes, problems funding roads are not solved.

People drive less and drive more efficient vehicles. Gas tax and motor vehicle registration funds aren’t keeping up with state spending on roads. Increasing debt payments for past spending takes a bigger bite every year.

At the same Eau Claire neighborhood conversation I was asked “Why are we voting on something that won’t solve the problem?

Good question!

Recent history helps explain why the amendment is before voters. Changing the Constitution is a slow process – and for good reason – so this citizen vote has been in the works for some time.

The state budget contains many funds. Two funds are very large pots of money: the Transportation Fund and the General Fund. Money from the General Fund pays for schools, health care, UW, local government, and prisons.

Moving money from Transportation to the General Fund began in earnest in 2003, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB). Governor Doyle faced a Republican-controlled legislature and a structural deficit greater than the one inherited by Governor Walker. Not surprisingly priorities between the Governor and lawmakers differed.

The most dramatic action came when Governor Doyle used veto powers to prevent a deep cut in education by moving road funds to the General Fund. Road builders and many Republicans cried ‘foul’. Thus was the genesis of this November’s vote.

In Governor Walker’s budgets, money moved in the opposite direction – schools and the UW were shorted while General Fund dollars moved to roads.

Both governors borrowed to pay for roads with General Fund money: a cumulative $1.3 billion over 12 years. This shorts money available for health and schools well into the future. In addition, borrowing increased in the Transportation Fund as spending outpaced revenue. Money paid to debt service will hit nearly 20% of all transportation spending by the 2015-16 budget.

Misinformation about the amendment abounds. For example, in recent legislative forums, listeners heard the Transportation Fund is not keeping up with the cost of roads because money was taken from the fund and never paid back.

Yes, money was taken from the fund but it was paid back and more.

Opponents of the constitutional amendment argue lawmakers should not be bound by “budgeting in the constitution”. Future legislatures should be free to move money from one fund to another as needs dictate. As a woman said, “What if there’s a huge surplus in the Transportation Fund and disaster strikes Wisconsin? Do we leave dying residents because there is a ‘lockbox’ on road money?”

Others argue the amendment is “political payback” for assistance by the road builders – one of the most powerful lobbying interests.

In 2013 the Transportation Finance and Policy Commission issued a key report on transportation problems - Keep Wisconsin Moving. The new Commission, established in the 2011-13 budget, was entirely composed of political appointees - a majority of Governor Walker’s appointees.

Their report focused mostly on the need for increased spending. Not surprisingly as a majority of commission members had present or past ties to the road building industry. The report paid very little attention to getting more for current road spending. But herein lies part of the answer.

A recent editorial in the Wausau Daily Herald reminds us: One important part of dealing with the state's transportation gap will be to reduce spending on transportation. Maintaining good roads is vital, but taxpayers should be able to expect that every project is conducted efficiently; every proposal is scrutinized to determine if it really needs to be done.

Evaluating the effectiveness of existing spending should be the first step before ordering new spending. A constitutional amendment is no substitute for careful, deliberative and transparent governing.

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