http://newiprogressive.com/images/stories/S5/walker_waves_s5.jpgThose on Scott Walker’s side are outspending those in Mary Burke’s corner by roughly a 55-45% margin says analysis by the non-partisan watchdog group Wisconsin Democracy Campaign.

MADISON - Scott Walker has been running around the State complaining about all the money being spent in the governor's race to defeat him. Sure sounds unfair. People "criticizing the Wisconsin comeback" and such. Poor guy, must be the underdog, right?

But that claim, like many made on the governor's behalf in this campaign, does not stand up to a fact check. On the question of who is outspending whom in the governor’s race, here’s what we can tell you so far:

If you look at disclosed spending by interest groups that has been reported so far, those on Scott Walker’s side are outspending those in Mary Burke’s corner by roughly a 55-45% margin. (See this link for a list detailing the groups and their spending up to this point.)

As for the undisclosed interest group spending, of the six so-called “issue ad” groups that are known to be spending money in the governor’s race but are not doing so from registered committees that file campaign finance reports, five of the six are on Walker’s side. (See here for details.)

And if you look at the money raised by the candidates themselves, Walker has taken in just over $25.5 million in individual donations over the course of the 2014 election cycle compared to about $14.1 million for Burke ($5 million of which is Burke’s own money that she contributed to her campaign). Walker also has raised more than Burke from PACs and other political committees. The year-to-date total in committee contributions to Walker is $2.6 million, compared to $1.05 million to Burke.

We will not be able to put a price tag on overall spending in this race until well after the election is over, but we expect spending by both sides to total somewhere between $50 million and $60 million. That would make it the most expensive regular election for governor (the previous record was $37 million in 2010) but less expensive than the 2012 recall election (where we tallied spending of $81 million).

A word about the methodology used to arrive at an estimate of eventual overall spending in the 2014 race of between $50 million and $60 million. Candidates spent $17.3 million overall through the pre primary reporting period. Based on past experience (looking at spending patterns in the 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2012 elections for governor), candidates have ended up spending 1.1 times more than their pre primary totals after that period. Using a 1.1 multiplier, we would expect to see somewhere in the neighborhood of $19 million spent by the candidates after the pre primary reporting period. Adding $19 million to the $17.3 million they spent before the primary and you get to about $36 million in expected candidate spending. Given the interest group advertising we've seen so far and given the experience of how much independent expenditure and issue ad groups spent in past elections for governor, I would expect that spending to be somewhere in the $15 million to $20 million range. Add that to the overall candidate spending and it puts the total in the low to upper 50s.

####

Green Bay Progressive Staff contributed to this article.